Dunning-Kruger Effect icon

Dunning-Kruger Effect

Belief Bias
The tendency for unskilled individuals to overestimate their abilities and for experts to underestimate theirs.

Example of Dunning-Kruger Effect

  • A beginner chess player confidently enters a tournament expecting to do well, while a much stronger player is nervous about their chances. The beginner lacks the skill to recognize how much they don't know about the game. Incompetence prevented accurate self-assessment, while expertise created awareness of limitations.
  • Someone who has read a few articles about a scientific topic argues confidently against experts in the field, certain that their understanding is correct despite lacking the knowledge to recognize the gaps in their understanding. Limited knowledge was insufficient to recognize its own limitations.

Note

Named after David Dunning and Justin Kruger, who published their seminal research in 1999. Their paper title humorously references a bank robber who believed lemon juice made him invisible to cameras.

This is a common bias

Books About Logical Fallacies

A few books to help you get a real handle on logical fallacies.

The above book links to Amazon are affiliate links. If you click through and make a purchase, I may get a commission from the sale.