Survivorship Bias icon

Survivorship Bias

Decision-Making Bias
The tendency to focus on successful examples while overlooking failures that are less visible.

Example of Survivorship Bias

  • An aspiring musician believes they can make it because they study successful artists who "just followed their passion," not realizing this advice comes only from survivors while countless equally passionate musicians failed and are now invisible. Success stories are visible while equivalent failure stories are not, biasing the apparent success rate.
  • A company benchmarks itself against industry leaders' practices, not realizing that many failed companies followed similar practices—those companies just aren't around to be studied. Analysis of survivors creates misleading lessons about what causes success.

Note

The World War II aircraft armor example involving Abraham Wald has become a classic illustration of this bias and its correction.

This is a common bias

Books About Logical Fallacies

A few books to help you get a real handle on logical fallacies.

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